Ascot Park (Invercargill) Racing Predictions - 23 January 2025
A bittersweet day at Matamata. We were 3 for 3, including the Pick of the Day, and a first and third in R2, and the Quinella in R3. The Value Pick of the Day (R4) was also being hammered in price.
So a success before it was abandoned at R4! - but also tough to stop it when we did, when it seems we had read the course well. Also, much harder on the owners and trainers who made the effort to get to the races and then have most of the meeting abandoned.
Picks for today below. For your awareness, weather forecast was patchy so I was more agnostic on track conditions than usual.
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Section 1: Picks of the Day
Pick of the Day: Lady Diva (#4, Race 4) Paying: $2.80; should be paying: $2.20
Edge: Consistent recent results - 2nd place at 1600m (paying $2.40), 4th at 1400m, and 3rd at 1200m, all within last 30 days. Decent runs in some higher stakes races. Will handle both dry and wet tracks. Has been quality in all of its races, a win is due.Value Pick of the Day: Naked Spirit (#6, Race 5) Paying: $9.00; should be paying: $7.50
Edge: Getting more competitive and gate last race was awful. It should improve on recent fresh up run. Market overweighting poor results in higher stake races, and underweighting good breeding factors, likely improvement pattern and better course suitability.
Section 2: Race by race guide
Race 1 - The Kurd (2200m)
Pick: N/A - favourite well priced.
Value Pick: He's Tiketiboo (#3) Paying: $4.80; Should be paying: $4.00
Edge: Decent form across previous races and some indications of quality in recent runs.
Race 2 - The Pixie (2200m)
Pick: Miss Layla (#1) Paying: $2.40; Should be paying: $2.00
Edge: Recent form shows competitive 3rd-4th placings in similar grade races, and rest of form line is in group races.Value Pick: Stolen Magic (#4) Paying: $5.50; Should be paying: $4.00
Edge: Past results verify strong staying record at this distance, has performed at this course.
Race 3 - The Fantasy (1200m)
Pick: N/A - favourite well priced.
Value Pick: The Tattler (#9) Paying: $9.50; Should be paying: $7.00
Edge: Good performances fresh in the past. Was 0.1L off shedding maiden status two races back. Track should be okay.
Race 4 - The Pearl Series (1400m)
Pick: Refer Section 1.
Value Pick: N/A.
Race 5 - The Mega Maiden (1600m)
Pick: Indie Ardie (#11) Paying: $3.60; Should be paying: $2.80
Edge: Dual acceptor who has chosen this race. Three career starts with two decent results and excuses in the other. Better barrier draw here and claim.Value Pick: Refer Section 1.
Race 6 - The Twinkle (2200m)
Pick: Za Beauteous (#4) Paying: $3.80; Should be paying: $3.00
Edge: Recent second at this grade, at this distance. Back to BM65 and assisted by claim and barrier. Versatile across tracks.Value Pick: Choux Macher (#1) Paying: $12.00; Should be paying: $9.00
Edge: Past performances verify strong record at this track and distance
Race 7 - The Dimple (1400m)
Pick: Bornvue (#2) Paying: $4.50; Should be paying: $3.50
Edge: Fresh up for a game second at this grade. Price overweighting recent problems at gates and other bad rides.Value Pick: Maryweka (#7) Paying: $8.00; Should be paying: $6.00
Edge: Good record fresh and at this distance. Nicely weighted.
Race 8 - The Jewel (1400m)
Pick: Small Town Belle (#12) Paying: $5.00; Should be paying: $4.00
Edge: Been in and around the podium for a while, in decent company. Claim plus draw other positive factors.Value Pick: Aqua Man (#3) Paying: $7.00; Should be paying: $6.00
Edge: Not far off fresh up, and this is its best draw in a while. Runs last spell showed signs of promise if given a good run.
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