Ellerslie Park Racing Predictions - 9 April 2025
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Only five picks today (couldn’t find a good sixth), and more favourites than normal. Today’s picks assume a Soft Track. Read the comments to understand where this was a factor. Remember:
No guarantees are made about the success of the predictions, which are for entertainment purposes only. Full disclaimer statement at bottom.
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Top Five Picks of the Day
Race 1 - TRACKSIDE.CO.NZ (1200m)
#10 Out Of Exile Is paying: $2.35. Should be paying: $2.10
Edge: Recent form shows consecutive second placings at 1150m trips. Form progression indicates competitiveness for win honors today. Has performed on softer tracks. Price is close to right but some value.
Race 3 - TAB (1600m)
#1 Shamwari Is paying: $2.50. Should be paying: $2.20
Edge: Consistent formline of 3rd-3rd-4th demonstrates reliability. Perfect barrier 1 draw offers significant tactical advantage at Ellerslie's 1600m start. Has placed twice at the distance, confirming stamina credentials. Recent solid 3rd at Hawera in particular over this trip reinforces readiness.
Race 4 - STELLA ARTOIS (2200m)
#2 Kaimai Warrior Is paying: $7.00. Should be paying: $6.00
Edge: Form includes a second-place finish two starts back over this exact 2200m trip. Well positioned in barrier 2. More proven at staying distances than many rivals. Recent form (5-2-11-7-2) shows consistency when competing at appropriate distances. Price offers clear value against shorter-priced competitors with less staying experience.
Race 6 - HORIZON BY SKYCITY (1600m)
#5 Goldiluxe Is paying: $4.60. Should be paying: $4.00
Edge: Remarkably consistent form pattern: 2nd-3rd-3rd-3rd-5th. Repeatedly finishing in the placings establishes clear reliability - could have gone better in some of those races if things went its way. Course placed and versatile across track types. Barrier 10 requires some navigation but previous races demonstrate adaptability to varying pace scenarios. Form consistency warrants shorter price than currently offered.
Race 7 - EAGLE TECHNOLOGY (1200m)
#11 Miriam Is paying: $5.00. Should be paying: $4.50.
Edge: Last-start winner at 1050m, demonstrating finishing ability. Well drawn in barrier 4, providing tactical options. Good weight advantage from older competitors. Progressive profile suggests further improvement is realistic. Heaps of upside the market is ignoring.
The horse race predictions provided on this Substack are generated using artificial intelligence using publicly available information. This content is intended for entertainment purposes through the fun and enjoyment of predictions about outcomes. The content does not constitute professional advice and is certainly not a recommendation to bet or gamble. If you choose to place bets based on the information on this Substack, you do so at your own risk.
Horse racing is inherently unpredictable. There is no such thing as a guaranteed outcome. We encourage you to bet responsibly and only gamble what you can afford to lose. For assistance with gambling-related issues, please contact a support organisation like www.gamblinghelpine.co.nz.
The opinions, analyses, and predictions provided are my own and are carried out in a personal capacity. They are not affiliated with or representative of my employer, my professional role, or any organization I may be associated with.