Te Rapa Racing Predictions - 8 February 2025
A great day at Tauranga (LINK). Highlights were: R3 - Penman beating the fav; R5 - Pick of the Day showing its class; R9 - $10 shot coming in. Momentum for the dual G1 day today - picks below! Remember:
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Section 1: Picks of the Day
Pick of the Day: #1 Tuxedo (Race 7) Is paying: $2.30; Should be paying: $2.00
Edge: Electric silver medal in the Karaka Millions 3YO. Overall - win, win, second, second so far in career. Progression through grades and racing pattern indicate more potential to be realized. Has the edge on key rivals in this race based on key stats. Draw isn’t great but key rivals have similar challenge.
Value Pick of the Day: #2 Lanikai (Race 5) Is paying: $7.50; Should be paying: $5.50
Edge: Has been on podium last of four races - even with a number of awkward runs he has been great this prep. Is always consistent over a mile, and has always at least placed with jockey on. Goes well over good and soft tracks, and is nicely drawn. Looks over the odds.
Section 2: Race by race guide
Race 1 - Horses at Henley Park BM65 1300m
Pick: #12 Carajillo Is paying: $5.00; Should be paying: $4.00
Edge: Recent closing efforts suggest potential for improvement. Racing pattern looking promising second-up.
Value Pick: #2 Saltnesse Is paying: $9.50; Should be paying: $8.00
Edge: Form reading consistently and course performer. Claim offsets poor barrier.
Race 2 - TAB MAAT 1300m
Pick: #6 Phoebe Buffay Is paying: $5.00; Should be paying: $3.50
Edge: Authorative maiden win suggests should be able to handle partial class rise.
Value Pick: #4 Charmrose Is paying: $5.00; Should be paying: $4.00
Edge: Recent maiden win showing promise. Potential for further improvement.
Race 3 - Peter Kelly Bayleys Real Estate BM75 2100m
Pick: #6 Northeasterly Is paying: $4.40; Should be paying: $3.80
Edge: Recent win suggesting good form - could be a true stayer. Rising in class but gets weight relief. Hat trick is on the cards.
Value Pick: #2 Utopian Wine Is paying: $6.50; Should be paying: $5.50
Edge: Won authoritatively at this distance and grade two starts ago. Since then raced nicely at G3 level where it still had more in the tank. A strong performer who should be getting more support.
Race 4 - David & Karyn Ellis Fillies Classic G2 2000m
Pick: N/A - favourite well priced.
Value Pick: #2 Myakkabelle Is paying: $5.00; Should be paying: $4.50
Edge: Last two starts at G2 level hampered by slow starts. Could ease behind favourite and surprise.
Race 5 - Sir Patrick Hogan Karapiro Classic SWP 1600m
Pick: #11 Risque Ruler Is paying: $3.80; Should be paying: $3.50
Edge: Track/distance record good. Recent form is lovely.
Value Pick: #7 Our Time Is paying $10.00; Should be paying $7.50
Edge: After a horrific debut has shown high degree of quality in two races since.
Race 6 - Herbie Dyke Stakes G1 2000m
Pick: #1 El Vencedor Is paying: $2.90 Should be paying: $2.50
Edge: Record shows he is G1 caliber. Took no prisoners last start, carrying a good deal.Value Pick: #3 Numerian Is paying: $6.00; Should be paying: $5.00
Edge: Aussie raider who’s record deserves more respect.
Race 7 - Legacy Lodge Waikato Guineas G2 2000m
Pick: Refer Section 1.
Value Pick: N/A
Race 8 - BCD Group Sprint G1 1400m
Pick: #1 Here To Shock Is paying: $4.50; Should be paying: $4.00
Edge: Been performing well across the ditch and now at best distance.
Value Pick: #13 Bosustow Is paying: $8.00; Should be paying: $6.50
Edge: Another raider who is up to this, draw is a plus.
Race 9 - Dr John Southworth Memorial Vase BM75 1200m
Pick: #3 December Is paying: $3.90; Should be paying: $3.40
Edge: Form at similar level reading consistently. Running style suggesting conditions could suit.
Value Pick: #9 Slipper Island Is paying: $8.00; Should be paying: $6.50
Edge: Recent runs showing glimpses of more ability. Could improve with ideal run.
The horse race predictions provided on this Substack are generated using artificial intelligence using publicly available information. This content is intended for entertainment purposes through the fun and enjoyment of predictions about outcomes. The content does not constitute professional advice and is certainly not a recommendation to bet or gamble. If you choose to place bets based on the information on this Substack, you do so at your own risk. Horse racing is inherently unpredictable. There is no such thing as a guaranteed outcome. We encourage you to bet responsibly and only gamble what you can afford to lose. For assistance with gambling-related issues, please contact a support organisation like www.gamblinghelpine.co.nz.
The opinions, analyses, and predictions provided are my own and are carried out in a personal capacity. They are not affiliated with or representative of my employer, my professional role, or any organization I may be associated with.